Inflation rises for a second consecutive month

Consumer price inflation increased to 5,4% in September from 4,8% in August. This brings the rate to the same level as June this year.

Fuel prices cast a shadow

The fuel index increased for a second consecutive month, rising by 7,6% between August and September. The price of inland 95-octane petrol jumped by R1,71 in September, reaching a 13-month high of R24,54.1 The transport category – mainly influenced by fuel – exerted strong upward pressure on the monthly inflation rate. Transport contributed 0,4 of a percentage point to the 0,6% monthly rise in the consumer price index (CPI).

After three consecutive months in negative territory, annual fuel inflation jumped from -11,7% in August to 1,5% in September.

Food inflation ticks slightly higher

After cooling for the past five months, the annual rate for food & non-alcoholic beverages (NAB) inched higher to 8,1% from 8,0% in August. Meat, fish, oils & fats, fruit and non-alcoholic beverages all registered higher annual rates in September. Lower rates were recorded for bread & cereals, sugar, sweets & desserts, vegetables and milk, eggs & cheese.

Meat prices increased on average by 0,6% between August and September, pushing the annual rate up to 3,8%. Poultry related products experienced some upward price movements in September as producers started to cull birds in response to the outbreak of avian flu.

Examples include fresh whole chicken (up 2,2%), fresh chicken portions (up 2,2%) and non-IQF chicken portions (up 1,9%). IQF chicken portions and chicken giblets were slightly cheaper.

Egg prices registered a monthly increase of 0,3% following a decline of 0,4% in August.

Prices for poultry related products deserve a close watch in the coming months to gauge the impact of the avian flu outbreak. The October CPI, due for release on 22 November, will provide the next update.

Inflation for bread & cereals eased for a fifth straight month, declining from 9,9% in August to 9,2% in September. Lower annual rates were recorded for most products in this group. Rice, for example, saw its rate slow to 18,6% from 19,8% in August. Higher rates were recorded for maize meal (11,9%), instant noodles (17,7%) and cakes and tarts (8,4%).

The price index for hot beverages jumped by 3,5% between August and September. The largest increases were recorded for instant coffee (up 4,8%), ground coffee (up 4,6%) and rooibos tea (up 3,7%).

Other notable price changes

The September CPI includes housing rent data for the third quarter. The annual rate for actual rentals was 2,6% (down from 2,7% in the second quarter). The rate for imputed rentals was also 2,6% (down from 2,9% in the second quarter).

Annual health inflation edged higher to 6,5% in September from 6,2% in August. This is the highest rate for health since November 2017 when it was also 6,5%. Prices for medical products increased by 7,5% in the 12 months to September.

The graphs below show the products that recorded the largest price increases in September.

For more information, download the September 2023 CPI statistical release and Excel files with indices and average prices here.

The archive is available here.

1 Department of Mineral Resources and Energy. Comparing prices for petrol, diesel and illuminating paraffin (IP) (click here).

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